Ticino budget: 2027 forecast shows deficit near 100 million francs

The Ticino government presented its 2027 budget on Wednesday. The canton expects expenditure of 4.73 billion francs and revenue of 4.63 billion, resulting in an operating deficit of 98.5 million francs and a total deficit of 161.4 million. Public debt could exceed three billion francs by the end of 2027.

The government is maintaining a high level of investment, at 290.5 million francs. Self-financing stands at 129.1 million francs, a ratio of 44.4 percent. According to the executive, the debt brake requirement is being met.

Spending rises despite cuts

Expenditure is rising by 101 million francs compared with the 2026 budget. This comes despite new savings measures worth 47 million francs, which, combined with previous ones, bring the total impact on this budget to 237 million francs, as government president Marina Carobbio Guscetti and fellow state councillor Norman Gobbi explained at a press conference.

The item showing the sharpest increase is health insurance subsidies: up 57 million francs, to a total of 332 million, rising to 520 million when payments to recipients of supplementary benefits are included. The increase stems both from the new insurance premiums announced on Tuesday and from the cantonal parliament's decision on implementing the popular initiative that caps premium costs for households at 10 percent of disposable income.

Staff costs are also rising (+9.3 million), along with AVS/AI supplementary benefits and the canton's share of hospital costs. Savings are being made in asylum spending (-8.1 million), in contributions to transport companies (-6.7 million, bringing the total to 108 million), and in payments to USI and SUPSI (-5.5 and -1.3 million respectively).

On the revenue side, the 106.9 million franc increase is driven in part by the cautious budgeting of two shares of Swiss National Bank profits, worth around 50 million francs, a choice that finance and economy director Christian Vitta said other cantons had also made. Federal fiscal equalization will bring in about ten million francs more, while federal reimbursements linked to holders of S status are falling, as many such permits may be converted to B permits in 2027.

Carobbio Guscetti described the situation as "strutturalmente fragile" (structurally fragile) and called for a debate on revenue as well as spending. Vitta, who will not stand for re-election in April and is therefore presenting his last budget, confirmed that further efforts will be needed. The financial plan points to growing operating deficits: 236 million francs in 2028, 411 million in 2029 and 460 million in 2030, a deterioration linked to the full implementation of the health insurance initiatives, the EFAS reform of hospital financing - whose impact on Ticino is now estimated at five times the federal government's original forecast - and the abolition of imputed rental value taxation.

What remains unclear is which tools the next legislature will use to address a structural deficit that keeps widening each year, and whether the planned recovery plan will rely mainly on spending cuts or also on new tax revenue.