Experts expect a strong franc also in 2026

According to experts consulted by the AWP news agency, the Swiss franc should continue in 2026 the upward trend seen in recent years. The forecast comes despite the shock linked to US tariffs and the repercussions on the Swiss economy.

Several factors are cited in support of a strong franc. These include political stability, large current-account surpluses, and low debt. The experts also point to an economy considered strong and highly innovative, as well as very low inflation.

In the context of trade relations with the United States, the agreement reached in the customs dispute with Washington is also mentioned. According to what is reported, thanks to this agreement Bern managed to remove the threat of becoming less competitive than neighbouring countries.

A factor that could instead weaken the franc would be the reintroduction of negative interest rates. Recently, inflation data and uncertainty in financial markets and in political terms have fuelled speculation in this direction. The Swiss National Bank, however, immediately denied this possibility.

The text also stresses that negative rates entail significant side effects, particularly on pension provision. The SNB, according to what is indicated, intends to avoid these effects.

The strength of the franc is described as a permanent challenge for the Swiss economy, which is export-oriented. Thomas Heller, chief economist at Frankfurter Bankgesellschaft, warns that the situation is “soprattutto in combinazione con l’aumento dei dazi doganali” (“especially in combination with the increase in customs tariffs”). Heller nevertheless expresses confidence in the Swiss economy’s ability to cope with this context as well, citing experiences already lived in the past.

Impact on exports

The forecast of a strong currency fits into a setting that continues to put pressure on companies that sell abroad. The text does not indicate specific sectors, but the focus is on the general issue of competitiveness. Competitiveness can become more difficult to maintain when the currency strengthens and when customs barriers increase.