Transport ’45: Federal Finance Control flags important shortcomings

The Federal Finance Control (FFC) has reviewed Transport ’45, the programme through which the Federal Council intends to expand the road network, the rail network and agglomeration transport by 2045. The verdict, published on Monday, speaks of "important shortcomings" in the decision-making bases, in the profitability estimates and in the financing.

The project has been in consultation since June and runs until 9 October. It provides for investments of around 50 billion francs. A first package of 11 billion is due to go before Parliament early next year, with a second dispatch planned for 2031.

The context is not the most favourable. In November 2024, voters rejected six motorway expansion projects. Around the same time, the Confederation announced that rail projects already approved would cost about 14 billion francs more than initially planned, mainly because of unavoidable additional works.

The FFC credits Transport ’45 with one merit: for the first time, road, rail and urban transport projects were assessed together, and some older projects were called into question. However, the financial oversight body had already asked the Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) and the Federal Council to suspend the programme before the consultation began, until the key issues were resolved. That request was not accepted.

Figures that don't add up

The programme's priorities rest largely on an expert assessment by ETH Zurich, whose mandate, the FFC says, was too limited to guarantee coherence between projects. The traffic forecasts used as a reference date back to 2021, and updated 2026 data will not be ready for next year's dispatch. CO2 costs are also underestimated compared with current scientific knowledge, while some variables were counted more than once. The result, according to the FFC, is an overall profitability probably lower than stated, and updated data would lead to different results and different priorities. The watchdog also laments the absence of a systematic comparison with cheaper alternatives to motorway expansion.

Two examples cited in the review: the planned new Grimsel rail tunnel, between the Bernese Oberland and Upper Valais, where operating costs would exceed revenue, and the six-lane expansion of the A1 motorway between Perly and Bernex, in the canton of Geneva, whose profitability would fall to 30 centimes per franc invested instead of the assumed 90.

On financing, the FFC points to liquidity risks for the Rail Infrastructure Fund as early as the 2030s, which could delay some projects beyond 2045. For the Fund for National Roads and Agglomeration Transport, expected revenue (9.5 billion francs by 2045) remains well below estimated expenses (16.3 billion): a gap based on the assumption of a not-yet-approved tax on electric vehicles and an increase in the mineral oil tax.

DETEC and the relevant federal offices reject the criticism. In their response, they argue that priority-setting should not rigidly follow profitability calculations, and that other, non-quantifiable factors must also be considered, such as the resilience of transport networks and regional development.