Natural disasters: a first half below average, but not a quiet one

In the first six months of 2026, natural disasters caused 100 billion dollars of damage worldwide, equal to 81 billion francs at current exchange rates. Of that, 42 billion was covered by insurance. The figures come from reinsurer Swiss Re's periodic report.

Both are lower than in the same period last year, when they stood at 111 and 50 billion respectively. The comparison with the 2016-2025 ten-year average points the same way: ten per cent less in total damage, sixteen per cent less on the insured share.

Balz Grollimund, who heads the relevant division at Swiss Re, warns against reading the numbers as a structural improvement. A cheaper half-year does not mean the risk has fallen, he notes, because a single large hurricane, an earthquake or a wide-ranging wildfire can change the picture in a short time.

The calendar explains the caution. Historically the second half accounts on average for 58 per cent of global insured losses, largely because of the hurricane season. And beyond seasonal forecasts, the underlying drivers of rising damage are the familiar ones: more and more is built in exposed areas, and rebuilding costs a little more every year.

The fastest-growing risk

The report gives particular space to wildfires in Europe. For now they weigh relatively little on total insured losses, but they are the weather hazard growing fastest anywhere in the world. Swiss Re calculates that since 1970 insured losses from wildfires in Europe have risen by eight to eleven per cent a year in real terms.

The climate context explains the trajectory. Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world and now records 64 per cent more days above thirty degrees than in the 1950s. Warmer and drier conditions, Grollimund notes, raise the likelihood of large-scale fires, and with them the number of homes, businesses and infrastructure that may lie in their path.

Adding man-made disasters to natural ones, the bill for the first six months rises to 107 billion dollars, against 160 in early 2025 and 119 for the ten-year average. The insured share is 48 billion.