Poll: both initiatives on track to be rejected

On September 27, the Swiss will vote on two popular initiatives, one on neutrality and one on food. The poll conducted by the gfs institute in Bern on behalf of SSR, carried out between September 2 and 9 among 12,196 eligible voters, shows that both texts would be rejected if the vote were held today. The sample, gathered by phone, was supplemented with readers of SSR websites, including rsi.ch, to ensure a sufficient base in French-speaking and Italian-speaking Switzerland as well.

The neutrality initiative, backed by Pro Svizzera and members of the SVP, had the support of 34% of voters in early September, down from 42% on August 9. Opponents stood at 63%, with only 3% undecided. Voters have also become more decided: 83% now have a firm opinion, up from 73% in August. According to the poll's authors, only a massive mobilization of supporters, combined with a reversal of the trend that is not currently visible, could still change the outcome of the vote.

Support remains a majority among SVP voters, at 77% despite a 9-point drop, while among independents the trend has flipped in favor of a no. In other parties, opposition is clear: 96% among Green Liberal voters, 92% among Social Democrats, 88% among the Greens. The no also prevails among those who trust the government, and in German- and French-speaking Switzerland. Italian-speaking Switzerland is an exception: supporters remain narrowly ahead, 48% to 47%, though they no longer reach the absolute majority seen in August. At present, there is no social group, language region, age bracket or income class where the text draws more than 50% support.

The food initiative

The food initiative, launched by activist Franziska Herren and the association Clean Water for All, is also losing ground. Support fell to 33% from 47% a month earlier, while opposition rose from 49% to 64%. 3% remain undecided. In this case, public opinion has already settled: 71% of respondents hold a firm view.

Only among Green sympathizers does the text retain a clear majority, at 78%. Social Democrats and Green Liberals, more supportive a month earlier, have now dropped below 50%. Even among young people, the group most inclined to back the initiative, support fell by 15 points, from 54% to 39%. In French-speaking Switzerland, supporters stand at 38%, just above the 37% recorded in Italian-speaking Switzerland. Even in cities, where support is highest, the yes vote does not exceed 34%.

Arguments in favor of the text are still widely shared: 78% believe climate change and pollution threaten drinking water resources, and 71% consider Swiss food production insufficient. Objections, however, are gaining ground: more respondents consider the goal of 70% food self-sufficiency within ten years unrealistic, and more fear that overly strict limits would hinder investment and raise costs.

Turnout is estimated at 49%, slightly above the long-term average of 47.4%. The poll does not allow for conclusions about the outcome in individual cantons, a relevant point since initiatives require a double majority of the people and the cantons.