Swiss inflation rises again to 0.8% in August

The consumer price index rose again in August, after four months of slowdown. Annual inflation stood at 0.8%, compared with 0.4% in July and 0.5% in June. The figure published by the Federal Statistical Office far exceeds the forecasts of analysts polled by the Awp agency, who had expected an increase between 0.5% and 0.6%. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.4%, also above estimates, which ranged from 0.0% to 0.2%. The index reached 101.5 points.

Rents and fuel drive the increase

The main drivers of the rise were rents, along with petrol, diesel, heating oil and inpatient hospital services. In contrast, prices fell for international travel, car rental and the para-hotel sector. Food prices remained stable, down 1.1% year-on-year. Housing and energy rose by 0.6% and 2.0% respectively.

The level remains low compared with abroad: inflation in the eurozone stood at 3.3% in August, and at 3.4% in the United States in July. The Swiss National Bank monitors these figures closely, since its price stability mandate sets a target range between 0% and 2%. August's increase therefore remains within this range, a margin the SNB considers compatible with its current policy rate of 0.0%, unchanged over the last four quarterly assessments after six rate cuts in 2024. The central bank's next meeting is scheduled for 24 September.

For the current year, the SNB expects average inflation of 0.6%. Other institutions, including the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Economiesuisse and UBS, forecast values between 0.4% and 0.8% for 2026, and between 0.6% and 1.0% for 2027. A picture that leaves the SNB some room to manoeuvre, but also raises the question of how long the cost of money will stay at zero, amid rising rents and energy prices that weigh directly on household and business budgets.