Japan weighs a cap on its foreign population

The Japanese government led by conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is tightening immigration controls and considering the introduction of a cap on the foreign population.

The question was discussed recently by a panel chaired by Hiroshi Ohashi, a professor at the University of Tokyo. The body is to examine the effects of immigration on demography and the economy and to set out a basic policy by the end of the year, which could include numerical or percentage limits on the foreign presence. That would be a first for Japan.

The initiative stems from an agreement between the governing Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party. The coalition initially called for a comprehensive cap, then softened the wording to quantitative management in order to avoid internal tensions.

Figures and new rules

According to the Interior Ministry, 3.9 million foreign residents now live in Japan, equal to 3.2 per cent of the population. A 2023 projection suggests that share could reach 10 per cent by 2070, a threshold associated elsewhere with social tensions.

The Immigration Agency has meanwhile tightened the requirements for permanent residency. From 1 October applicants will have to show household income above the Japanese average and a pension outlook equivalent to thirty years of contributions. The residency application fee will rise twentyfold, from 10,000 to 200,000 yen, around 1,100 euros.

A number of observers warn that stricter rules risk deterring foreign workers in a country facing an unprecedented demographic crisis and a chronic labour shortage. Japan therefore has to choose between two demands pulling in opposite directions: limiting the growth of the foreign presence and finding the people the economy needs to function.