Housing bubble risk rises again, though not in Ticino

The index UBS uses to measure the risk of a housing bubble in Switzerland is still climbing. In the second quarter of 2026 it stood at 0.72 points, against 0.62 in the preceding three months.

The annual comparison says more than the quarterly one. A year ago the same measure was at 0.07 points. The bank notes that the rise has been uninterrupted since the end of 2024.

The level reached nonetheless remains in the moderate risk band, which runs from 0 to +1 point. Between 0 and -2 the risk is judged low. Between +1 and +2 the bank speaks of elevated risk, and above +2 of acute risk.

Prices and debts growing faster than incomes

The engine of the increase is the gap between two curves. Both household debt and housing prices have risen markedly faster than incomes.

Two factors have accelerated the trend. The first is the persistence of low interest rates, which keeps mortgage credit cheap. The second is the shortage of new housing on the market.

Analysts do not expect a cooling any time soon. For the coming quarters they foresee solid demand for owner-occupied housing, despite per capita income growing only marginally. For 2026 as a whole they expect a nominal price rise of between 3.5% and 4.0%.

The map of imbalances bears directly on Italian-speaking Switzerland. Almost every area of Grisons shows strains, while the problem is absent from Ticino's districts. The most difficult situations are in the Zurich area, central Switzerland and some districts of Vaud and Valais.

The difference between the two Alpine cantons comes down to demand. In Grisons the market for second and holiday homes carries weight, and it depends on buyers from outside the region rather than on local incomes.

For anyone looking at public finances and households, the telling figure is the ratio between mortgage debt and disposable income. As long as it keeps rising, an increase in rates feeds through more forcefully to family budgets. The bank's measure does not announce a crisis, but it does show the safety margin narrowing.