Ukraine: the debate over elections in wartime

In Ukraine, martial law, in force since the start of the Russian invasion, bans the holding of elections and referendums. This is set out in Article 19 of the law on martial law. Suspending it would, however, raise legal, political and security questions, explains Arkady Moshes, director of the Russia, Eastern Europe and Eurasia programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, interviewed by the RSI programme Seidisera.

According to Moshes, changing the law on martial law is simpler than amending the Constitution. An alternative would be to ask the Supreme Court for a ruling. It would also be possible to suspend or revoke martial law directly, a decision that falls to Parliament: in that case, elections would have to be called within a month and held within the following three months.

The legal path exists, but the political one is more complicated. It would be necessary to establish who among citizens living abroad has the right to vote and who can be considered a citizen, especially given that part of the population lives in territories occupied by Russian troops.

Fedorov's ambitions

The election issue has returned to the spotlight after former defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov called for presidential elections to be held despite the war. The request comes as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau has launched a new operation involving several people close to President Volodymyr Zelensky, some of whom have been dismissed.

For Moshes, the timing is no coincidence. Since the parliament elected in 2019 took office, the pro-presidential majority has kept the opposition weak. Now its voice can be heard more strongly, partly because Fedorov himself is a popular figure, unlike former opposition leaders such as Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, who are under investigation and have less appeal among the public.

Moshes describes Fedorov's move as a full-fledged entry into politics, timed for the most favourable moment: in six months his popularity might no longer be as high, while right now he is also benefiting from the ongoing anti-corruption operations.

Suspending martial law would, however, have consequences beyond the vote itself. Without it, for instance, the question would arise of whether Ukrainian citizens could leave the country, with security repercussions that would require changes to many other laws. According to Moshes, President Zelensky is not in favour of this option, and what is needed instead is a discussion, not necessarily a public one, on the timing and terms of any future electoral process.

Asked how Zelensky could get out of the current situation, Moshes replies that he cannot. The president has long tried to maintain the status quo, but the corruption involving some of his closest aides has created a concentration of power that, in practice, lies with the presidential office rather than with the president himself.