SSR poll: neutrality initiative headed for rejection

The first SSR poll by the gfs.bern institute, conducted ahead of the federal votes of 27 September, shows a difficult start for the neutrality initiative backed by the SVP. Had the vote been held on 9 August, the proposal would have been rejected by 54% of voters, against 42% in favour and 4% undecided. The outcome of the food security initiative remains more uncertain, with 49% opposed and 47% in favour. The survey gathered the views of 17,212 eligible voters across all language regions. Turnout intention stands at 44%, below the historical average of 47.4% recorded since 2011.

The neutrality initiative calls for enshrining permanent and armed neutrality in the Constitution, limiting the Federal Council's room for manoeuvre, particularly on sanctions against warring states. 73% of respondents have already formed a clear opinion: 30% are firmly in favour, 43% firmly opposed.

The sharpest divide is political. Among SVP voters, 86% intend to vote yes. Among supporters of other parties, no prevails: 86% for the SP, 81% for the Green Liberals, 78% for the Greens, 74% for the Centre, 64% for the FDP. Among people with no party affiliation, a narrow majority of 52% favours the initiative. Trust in the government also plays a role: those who distrust it support the initiative at 59%, while those who trust it reject it at 69%.

Support also varies by region. Italian-speaking Switzerland stands out with a 55% majority in favour, while German-speaking Switzerland rejects the text at 57% and French-speaking Switzerland at 49%. The urban-rural divide matters too: in cities, no reaches 59%, while in rural areas the initiative would narrowly pass, at 51%. People with lower levels of education support it at 59%, while those with a university degree reject it at 58%. Among people over 65, opposition is clear, at 60%.

Among opponents, the most convincing argument is that international security cooperation must be exercised before any potential conflict, and that the room for manoeuvre offered by today's flexible neutrality should be preserved. Among supporters, the wish to prevent shifting interpretations of neutrality carries more weight, while giving up sanctions fails to convince even within the yes camp.

Food initiative: the choice remains open

The food initiative seeks to raise Switzerland's self-sufficiency rate from 46% to at least 70%, with more plant-based production, and to strengthen the protection of drinking water. Here, only 60% have a clear opinion, 27% in favour and 33% against. 76% of intending voters nonetheless expect it to be rejected.

Political divisions emerge here too: support is strongest among the Greens (84%) and the SP (64%), and weaker among the Green Liberals (55%), even though the SP and Green Liberals have recommended a no vote. Opposition prevails among the Centre (58%), the SVP (62%) and the FDP (69%). Support is stronger among lower incomes and among women, who favour the initiative at 55% against 39% of men. The most convincing argument is the need to secure clean drinking water in the face of climate change, while opponents mostly hold that the state should not decide what people are allowed to eat.

The poll was conducted by gfs.bern through telephone interviews and online questionnaires on SSR's information portals. The statistical margin of error is 2.8 percentage points.