Ticino's deficit falls to 50 million thanks to the SNB dividend

The Canton of Ticino's budget projection updated to the end of June shows a deficit of 49.7 million francs for 2026. The budget had forecast 109 million. Against the previous estimate the improvement comes to 8.3 million.

The result arises from two opposing movements. Expenditure rose by 46 million francs. Revenue grew by 105.3 million.

Almost all of that additional revenue has a single origin. The Swiss National Bank paid out a dividend of 106.1 million francs that had not been budgeted for.

Where spending is growing

The rising items concern social spending above all. Supplementary benefits to the AVS and AI pension schemes are up by 12 million. The cantonal contribution to health insurance premium reductions grows by a further 12 million. Assistance benefits increase by 4.7 million.

Next come the items linked to asylum. Costs for asylum seekers rise by 3.3 million, those for people holding S status by 3 million, those for refugees by 2.5 million.

Personnel spending increases by 8 million francs. The rise is due mainly to teaching staff in lower secondary, upper secondary and special education.

The State Council notes that these are provisional figures and calls for caution in reading them, given the uncertainties of the economic environment.

The distinction between the two columns matters in gauging what the figure means. The National Bank dividend arrived during the year and did not appear in the budgeted accounts. The expenditure items listed, by contrast, are recurring in nature, since they concern social benefits and salaries that return in every financial year.

The deficit therefore falls by almost sixty million against the budget, but the lasting part of that improvement is the smaller of the two. On the spending side the projection records an increase rather than a correction.

The government has not said what result it expects at year end. Nor has it set out how it intends to handle the items that grew in the first half, which the document lists without comment on the outlook.