The ten million initiative rejected over economic fears

The initiative "No to a 10 million Switzerland" was rejected on 14 June with 54.8% voting no. The VOX analysis of the vote, carried out by the gfs.bern institute, shows where that majority formed.

The rejection does not stem from disagreement about the diagnosis. According to the survey, even among those who turned the initiative down, population growth is seen as a burden on infrastructure.

The decisive element was something else: concern about the economic and foreign policy consequences of a population ceiling with no precedent anywhere in the world. Supporters, by contrast, relied mainly on arguments about migration policy and growth.

A strongly polarised vote

Voting behaviour was compact along party lines. Swiss People's Party voters backed the text as a bloc, with 95% in favour. Voters without a party affiliation also supported it, though narrowly, with 51% in favour.

The importance attached to the subject was high. On the scale used by the institute the initiative scored 8.1 points, the highest value among the proposals of this legislative term.

The same day brought a vote on the civil service law, accepted by 52.5% of voters. Here the decisive argument was the need to guarantee sufficient numbers for the army, which convinced even some of those opposed to the revision.

Support came mainly from sympathisers of the Swiss People's Party, the Liberals and the Centre. Younger voters, by contrast, were more inclined to reject the reform.

Turnout came close to 59%. The composition of that electorate follows a recurring pattern: voting was heavier among people who are politically interested, party-affiliated, older, and with higher education and income.

The figure deserves attention precisely given the subject at hand. An initiative on the size of the population bears directly on those who have arrived in Switzerland recently, that is on a substantial share of residents who have no right to vote.

The analysis is based on 3,305 interviews. VOX analyses have accompanied federal votes since 1977, and since 2020 they have been produced by gfs.bern under a mandate from the Federal Chancellery.