Saxony-Anhalt votes, AfD favourite to lead the state

Saxony-Anhalt, in eastern Germany, votes today. For the first time, a German state could come under the leadership of the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The party is the clear favourite: the latest polls put it above 40%, well ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Polling stations close at 6pm, with first projections expected shortly after; the provisional result should take shape overnight.

If the numbers allow it, AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund, 35, could become the party's first minister-president in the history of the Federal Republic. An outcome that would have consequences well beyond the state's borders and is being followed closely across Europe.

The reasons behind the support

Speaking to RSI's programme SEIDISERA, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, editor-in-chief of the weekly Die Zeit, points to a persistent sense of disadvantage in parts of former East Germany as one of the main causes. Added to this is immigration, which he says is the main reason for many voters, even though the number of asylum seekers arriving has fallen compared with a year ago.

The election debate has also been marked by the attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg in December 2024. Di Lorenzo notes that such episodes are sometimes exploited for political ends, but they also raise legitimate questions about the state's ability to act against people already known to the authorities or without a valid residence permit. When such cases lead to serious crimes, he says, they become hard to explain to the public.

According to Di Lorenzo, the answer cannot simply be tougher migration policies, an area where the CDU too has tried to win back support in recent years. “La risposta ideale sarebbe l'integrazione” (“The ideal answer would be integration”), he explains, allowing those who come to Germany to build a stable existence while reducing the risk of marginalisation and crime.

A challenge made more complex by the numbers: over the past ten years, more than three million migrants have arrived in Germany, including more than a million Ukrainians. This influx, Di Lorenzo says, has put the social and education systems under pressure and worsened existing problems such as the housing shortage. In Saxony-Anhalt the share of foreigners remains relatively low, but the difficulties perceived elsewhere in the country still weigh on the local debate.

Di Lorenzo also points to the direct access to social benefits granted to Ukrainian refugees, unlike in other countries, as a source of misunderstanding. “Ci sono molte contraddizioni, molte cose non funzionano come dovrebbero funzionare” (“There are many contradictions, many things don't work as they should”), he concludes, seeing in this widespread discontent the basis of the protest vote that could today open the doors of a state government to the AfD for the first time.