Half of Swiss cantons expect deficits in 2027, Ticino among the hardest hit

For many Swiss cantons, 2027 looks set to be a financially difficult year. According to the Conference of Cantonal Finance Directors (CDF), around half of the cantons expect to close their accounts with a deficit, while thirteen cantons anticipate an improvement compared with the current year.

CDF president Ernst Stocker explained that the situation varies from canton to canton, depending on economic structure, demographic trends and each territory's tax capacity.

Among the cantons expecting to close 2027 in the black are Zurich (+207 million francs), Zug (+291 million), Bern (+269 million), St. Gallen (+55.5 million), Basel-Stadt (+43 million) and Lucerne (+22.1 million). Fribourg expects a slight surplus of 0.2 million. By contrast, Geneva (-546 million), Vaud (-356 million), Ticino (-98.5 million), Schwyz (-94.4 million), Solothurn (-75.4 million) and Schaffhausen (-65 million) expect negative results. Graubünden, Appenzell Innerrhoden and Appenzell Ausserrhoden have not yet published their figures.

CDF vice-president Nathalie Fontanet pointed out that there is no automatic link between a canton's wealth and the health of its finances: some cantons with lower resource potential expect surpluses, while other, economically stronger cantons are budgeting for deficits.

The positive results forecast by some cantons should not, however, lead to easy optimism. Bern, for instance, expects a surplus of 269 million next year, but already foresees a marked deterioration of its accounts in subsequent years, driven above all by supplementary AHV/IV benefits, healthcare costs and spending on health insurance premium subsidies.

Health reforms weigh more heavily from 2028

It is above all from 2028 that the situation risks becoming more complicated. According to the CDF, recently approved reforms to the healthcare system could lead to a significant increase in cantonal spending.

With the entry into force of the counter-proposal to the initiative for lower health insurance premiums, cantons must guarantee a minimum contribution to financing individual premium reductions (RIPAM). The federal government estimates additional costs initially close to 350 million francs a year, set to approach one billion by 2030.

This will be compounded by the new EFAS system, the uniform financing of healthcare services, which from 2028 will require cantons to contribute not only to the costs of hospital stays but also to those of outpatient care.

According to Stocker, preserving current sources of revenue will be essential if cantons are to absorb these new burdens. Spending pressure, the CDF notes, is now visible everywhere, and in recent years the balance of public accounts has been maintained mainly through growth in tax revenue and some extraordinary income, rather than through spending restraint. Several cantons are already drawing up or implementing savings programmes to contain the rise in expenditure. Also still open is the question of profit distribution by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which posted a profit of 25.2 billion francs in the first half of 2026: the final decision will depend on the full-year result as of 31 December.

Ticino expects to close 2027 with a deficit of 98.5 million francs, among the worst results expected in Switzerland. These forecasts fit into a broader national picture of growing pressure on public finances, driven in particular by rising healthcare spending and higher contributions required for premium reductions.