Lula wins Brazil's runoff, but the vote is being contested

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the second round of Brazil's presidential election with 51.8% of the vote. The victory is being contested: his right-wing rival Flavio Bolsonaro, who had led after the first round, does not recognise the validity of the vote and has called for it to be annulled.

The dispute centres on the decision to extend polling by two hours. That decision was taken by a Supreme Court judge, Cristiano Zanini, who had previously served as one of Lula's defence lawyers. The judge justified the move by citing public transport problems in Salvador de Bahia, a stronghold of the left. The extension came after many polling stations had already closed, causing difficulties for some voters. The president of the Superior Electoral Court nonetheless confirmed the re-election of the outgoing president.

For many analysts, the dispute matters little given the final margin of 4.3 million votes. The comeback is described as extraordinary: it is the first time a candidate who finished second in the first round has gone on to win the runoff. The result is attributed to a large digital marketing campaign called "Esercito di Lula" (Lula's Army), which mobilised ten million activists who spent three weeks on "virar votos" — winning over new voters for the left.

A difficult fourth term ahead

Lula celebrated his victory in São Paulo, but his fourth term begins in a difficult political climate. The new Parliament, elected three weeks ago, leans right, as do the governors of major states such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais.

The president will struggle to get laws and the 2027 budget passed. In the final weeks of the campaign he increased public spending to win votes: between higher subsidies, a promise of free weekend public transport, bonuses for small businesses and the end of online betting, the equivalent of 50 billion francs has already been committed for 2027.

Lula said yesterday that this would be his best term yet. At 81, a birthday he marks tomorrow, he showed strength and energy in this last campaign, but will need to find new support and new allies in a Parliament that is hostile to him. He has promised to focus on young people and to take a tougher stance on crime. Brazil remains a deeply divided country, and his political rivals are ready to make things hard for him.