Brazil: Lula still ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro but the lead is narrowing

Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains ahead in the polls before October's elections, but his margin over senator Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed. The finding comes from a survey by the Quaest institute commissioned by the Globo group.

In a run-off scenario Lula takes 43% and Bolsonaro 40%. In the previous survey the ratio was 44 to 39. The gap therefore falls from five to three percentage points, close to the stated margin of error of two points.

In the first round Lula is on 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 31%. Far-right figure Renan Santos follows on 4%, centrist governor Ronaldo Caiado on 4% and right-wing governor Romeu Zema on 2%. The survey was carried out between 10 and 13 August among a sample of 2,004 people.

A candidate who inherits a name

Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. His candidacy gathers the electorate that backed his father, now barred from running. Consolidating the vote around a single name on the right explains much of the recovery recorded in recent weeks, while the minor candidates remain at levels that will not affect the second round.

Brazil's electoral system provides for a run-off if no candidate passes fifty per cent in the first round. At current levels every survey treats a second round as certain.

The campaign is taking place in a country that has recorded stronger than expected economic growth and slowing inflation, two elements that normally help incumbents. The polls suggest, however, that assessments of the president's record and voting intentions are moving along different paths.