Brazil: with 41% of votes counted, Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula

In Brazil, where about 41% of the votes have been counted, Flavio Bolsonaro has an early lead in the first round of a closely contested presidential election. He stands at 50.41%, while the current left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has 41.44%. The senator hopes to bring his father's right-wing movement back to power.

Traditionally, the early stage of the count favours the sovereigntist candidate. The first polling stations to be counted are in the wealthy southern states, where Bolsonaro is very strong. Results from the north-east states, Lula's strongholds, will only arrive later.

At 10% of the count, Bolsonaro had a 10-point lead; at 40%, the margin was 9 points. The gap is expected to keep narrowing until the end.

Attention now turns to the decisive second round on 25 October. The candidates excluded from the runoff account for about 10% of the vote and are all centre-right. On paper, their votes should largely, if not entirely, go to Flavio Bolsonaro.

For days, analysts have said that Lula needs a first-round lead of at least 5 to 7 percentage points over his rival to have a real chance of re-election on 25 October. If the gap is smaller, it is fair to consider Bolsonaro the favourite to win.

The campaign has been marked by corruption scandals and economic concerns. Worries about public finances are growing, and economic growth is slow. The political debate has been thin, because both main candidates declined to take part in the major televised debates.

Foreign interference

A victory for Senator Bolsonaro would extend a wave of right-wing wins in Latin America by candidates aligned with US President Donald Trump. Lula's re-election, by contrast, could create problems for Washington, which has already clashed with his government over trade and security issues.

Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, but he hosted Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and has praised him publicly.

Lula's allies have warned that the Trump administration could refuse to recognise the election results. After voting in São Bernardo do Campo, in the state of São Paulo, Lula said: «Quello che è in gioco è il futuro del Brasile» (What is at stake is the future of Brazil).

The first final result concerns the government of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. With 85.59% of sections counted, the Superior Electoral Court has mathematically confirmed the re-election of Governor Eduardo Riedel of the Progressive Party, a conservative, centrist party. Riedel won 67.32% of the vote, ahead of Fabio Trad of the Workers' Party, a left-wing party, on 23.12%. In the same state, Flavio Bolsonaro, the presidential candidate for the Liberal Party (PL), won 59.52% of the vote, against 33.50% for the outgoing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Results for the Senate are also final, with the two Liberal Party candidates, Reinaldo Azambuja and Capitan Contar, elected.