2027 elections: SVP leads with 29.9% of the vote, SRG Barometer finds

A year before the 2027 federal elections, the Swiss People's Party (SVP) remains the country's largest party and is widening its lead. According to the latest SRG electoral Barometer, produced together with the research institute Sotomo, if an election were held today the SVP would win 29.9% of the vote, two percentage points more than in the 2023 elections. The survey gathered responses from 25,092 eligible voters between 10 and 23 September 2026, with a margin of error of 1.2 percentage points.

Behind the SVP comes the Social Democratic Party (SP), at 19.3% (+1 point), followed by the Greens at 10.3% (+0.5 points). According to the survey's authors, the combined gains of the Social Democrats and the Greens point to a strengthening, albeit modest, of the red-green camp.

On the other side, the Centre loses 1.5 percentage points compared with 2023 and falls to 12.6%, while the Liberals (FDP) drop to 13.3%, down one point. For the Liberals, if confirmed at the ballot box, this would be the worst result in the party's history in National Council elections. The party can nonetheless take some comfort in overtaking the Centre, which was ahead of it in voting intentions last year — a position that could also carry weight in any claim to a vacant seat on the Federal Council. The Green Liberals, at 7.1%, round out the picture of the six largest parties.

Analysts behind the Barometer note that, unlike the rapidly growing right-wing parties in other Western European countries, the SVP has for years already been making the most of its electoral potential, which is why its growth remains limited. SVP voters are also the most convinced of their choice: 67% of SVP voters describe themselves as very certain of their vote, ahead of 54% for the SP and 51% for the Greens.

Health insurance premiums remain the top concern in Italian-speaking Switzerland

The survey also measured voters' main concerns. Nationally, health insurance premiums remain the most frequently cited challenge, named by 39% of respondents, although that is down from 50% in October 2024. Concern about climate change, by contrast, is rising, cited by 36% of the sample, ten points more than in the past two years, likely as a result of the heat of summer 2026.

Regional differences are stark. In Italian-speaking Switzerland, 67% of respondents consider health insurance premiums the main challenge, a share the Barometer describes as a "febbre da cavallo" (literally "horse fever," meaning an acute, burning concern), and the issue also weighs more heavily in French-speaking Switzerland than in the German-speaking part. Italian-speaking Switzerland also stands out for the low importance given to housing shortages, cited as a priority by just 10% of respondents.

The survey also found a critical view of the Federal Council's foreign policy: 83% of respondents consider the government's conduct toward the United States too friendly, and 75% express the same view about relations with Israel. Among government members, Karin Keller-Sutter remains the federal councillor seen as most influential, with 63% of mentions, ahead of Albert Rösti (53%) and Guy Parmelin (42%), while Elisabeth Baume-Schneider is seen as the least influential by 65% of the sample.