Disability insurance funds at risk of running out by 2031 without reform

The Federal Council opened a consultation on Wednesday on the next reform of disability insurance (AI). The government wants to strengthen the professional integration of insured people while also repairing the insurance's finances, which have kept deteriorating in recent years.

In recent years, the number of new disability pensions has risen across all age groups, but the sharpest increase concerns young people aged 18 to 24. The main reason is mental illness: someone who starts receiving a pension so early in life risks depending on it for a long time, because it is harder for them to enter or re-enter the labour market.

That is why the government is proposing a new integration benefit, aimed at around a thousand young people a year who have integration potential but whose health condition currently prevents them from taking part in the AI's professional integration measures. It would consist of an integration allowance of around 1,000 francs a month and extended, individual support that would also involve the person's surroundings. The reform also aims to improve access to training and further training for young people and for people with low income or little qualification, who today often do not meet the requirements for professional reintegration.

Savings and new contributions

The AI's finances have shown a structural deficit since the early 1990s. In 2025 the deficit exceeded 200 million francs and, according to forecasts, could rise to over 600 million by 2030. The compensation fund currently holds liquidity equal to only 33% of a year's expenditure, against the 50% required by law: without corrective measures, the fund would be exhausted by 2031.

To cut spending, the Federal Council proposes raising the disability level required for a full pension from 70% to 80%, and reducing the daily allowance for people without family support obligations, along the lines of unemployment insurance. According to government estimates, these measures would cut AI spending by 150 million francs in 2030. It remains to be seen how many people with a disability level between 70% and 80% will end up with a lower pension, and how much room will be left for those who already receive the lowest daily allowances.

On the revenue side, the government is relying on a temporary and a permanent increase in wage contributions, an additional contribution on income above 181,440 francs, and a share of the casino tax, which today goes entirely to old-age and survivors' insurance (AVS). The additional contribution would be split equally between employees and employers. The government estimates that, taken together, these measures would allow the AI fund to return to the legally required 50% of annual expenditure by 2036. The consultation runs until 4 February 2027.